i would agree but I think your number 2 is really number 1. Even with good discipline, money mgmt, etc...it's very tough to beat the book over the long haul because you have to win 52.5 percent (or whatever) of your plays and he only needs 47.5 percent to win. Throw in parlays and chasing and that's why there are billion dollar casinos in Vegas
Mainly because they bet favorites.
I'd have to add: most people do not understand that wagering is a game of numbers, not teams or matchups. Take buying points for example. It is one of the most idiotic things you can do - either on or off a "key number" or a teaser. It adds risk and provides little value. Specifically, in the NFL there have been 6 or 7 games total in the last 4 weeks (60 games) where the spread mattered. Yet people buy points. It is moronic.
This is a good article that touches on betting underdogs.
http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/9/p/733940/1920306.aspx
I'd have to add: most people do not understand that wagering is a game of numbers, not teams or matchups. Take buying points for example. It is one of the most idiotic things you can do - either on or off a "key number" or a teaser. It adds risk and provides little value. Specifically, in the NFL there have been 6 or 7 games total in the last 4 weeks (60 games) where the spread mattered. Yet people buy points. It is moronic.
This is a good article that touches on betting underdogs.
http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/9/p/733940/1920306.aspx
pretty much everyone in this thread is wrong
the #1 reason most players don't win is because the line on major american professional sports games is efficient as hell thus making winning at -110 extremely difficult. I can't believe no one has said this...
money management, picking favs too much, etc...Even if the people who do those things didn't they would still lose 99% of the time, just at a slower rate
the #1 reason most players don't win is because the line on major american professional sports games is efficient as hell thus making winning at -110 extremely difficult. I can't believe no one has said this...
money management, picking favs too much, etc...Even if the people who do those things didn't they would still lose 99% of the time, just at a slower rate
I disagree with all of you guys.
The #1 reason people don't win is because they don't know how to handicap.
The juice can be selectively beaten.
And money management only becomes important if one knows how to pick winners and has the discipline to wait for the spots where you get the edge over the juice.
People THINK they know how to handicap when in fact they do not.
The #1 reason people don't win is because they don't know how to handicap.
The juice can be selectively beaten.
And money management only becomes important if one knows how to pick winners and has the discipline to wait for the spots where you get the edge over the juice.
People THINK they know how to handicap when in fact they do not.
well
you can probably argue semantics all day
i think it's harder to pick 53%+ consistent winners, and thus, if the average chump wants to win, he has a better chance with varying bet sizes. you have to be smart to consistently pick winners. you don't have to be as smart to get in the black. that's just how i see it.
i don't think the typical gambler goes in with the grind it out, flat bet mentality
i think the typical loser chases his bets, because of what i already explained, and thus that is why money management is what produces losers.
you can easily argue your side, and just say because it is very difficult to beat the line at 53%+, that would support your argument. but my argument is that the typical gambler doesn't go in with the mentality of even attempting to hit that rate over a long run. they don't even try to grind. they lose, and they lose big for other reasons.
maybe, maybe not
i basically see 4 groups of people, 1 of which really only exists in theory.
excellent cappers that can hit 53%+ (super rare)
losing flat bettors (also super rare. why? if they lose long enough, those losers eventually always chase)
varying bet sizes, hit around 50%, come out in the black (majority of winning bettors despite many of them thinking they are better than 53% lol)
varying bet sizes, hit around 50%, if not way less, come out in the red (most losers and just most people in general)
my point is you can still win without hitting 53% and honestly i think a lot of people do it that way.
there are just few people willing to grind out that kind of win.
i basically see 4 groups of people, 1 of which really only exists in theory.
excellent cappers that can hit 53%+ (super rare)
losing flat bettors (also super rare. why? if they lose long enough, those losers eventually always chase)
varying bet sizes, hit around 50%, come out in the black (majority of winning bettors despite many of them thinking they are better than 53% lol)
varying bet sizes, hit around 50%, if not way less, come out in the red (most losers and just most people in general)
my point is you can still win without hitting 53% and honestly i think a lot of people do it that way.
there are just few people willing to grind out that kind of win.
